“Solar is cheaper than NEPA” is one of the most argued-over claims on Nigerian Twitter, usually from someone on Band A. Rather than argue, we ran it through InfraSol Intelligence, the hour-by-hour model we use to size every system. We took six kinds of Band A customer, from a family that is out all day to a clinic that never closes, on a Band A feeder we monitor in Lekki Phase 1. We gave each the system we would actually sell them, at its installed price, and ran it through 25 years of sun, grid and load, hour by hour.
How much is Band A per kWh, and how many hours should it give?
Band A costs ₦209.50 per kWh and is meant to supply at least 20 hours a day. Bands B to E pay less because they are promised fewer hours: at least 16, 12, 8 and 4. In Lagos, the distribution companies are now regulated by the Lagos State Electricity Regulatory Commission, so check the rate on your own bill.
How many hours does Band A really deliver?
14.5 hours a day
Average supply on the Band A feeder we monitor in Lekki Phase 1: 60% of the year, against the 20 hours Band A promises.
On the feeder we monitor, about 14.5 hours a day on average. January was the best month, at about 21 hours a day; by June it was under 12, and the seasonal pattern keeps it there through September.
| Month | Grid on | Hours a day |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | 89% | 21.4 |
| Feb | 76% | 18.2 |
| Mar | 59% | 14.2 |
| Apr | 56% | 13.4 |
| May | 63% | 15.1 |
| Jun | 48% | 11.5 |
| Jul (forecast) | 46% | 11.0 |
| Aug (forecast) | 45% | 10.8 |
| Sep (forecast) | 48% | 11.5 |
| Oct (forecast) | 55% | 13.2 |
| Nov (forecast) | 62% | 14.9 |
| Dec (forecast) | 68% | 16.3 |
Is a kWh of solar cheaper than a kWh of Band A?
Yes, for every customer we modelled: ₦70–₦125 per kWh over the system’s life, against ₦209.50 for Band A. That is the whole cost of owning the system, paid outright, divided by every kWh it actually supplies in 25 years. It is cheapest for businesses that use their power in daylight (₦70–₦87) and most expensive for homes (₦117–₦125), for a reason we come to below.
| Customer | Daytime use | System | Solar used | Solar per kWh | Band A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-bedroom home, out all day | 35% | 6kVA Max, ₦5.7M | 54% | ₦124 | ₦209.50 |
| 5-bedroom home, out all day | 35% | 10kVA Pro, ₦8.9M | 59% | ₦125 | ₦209.50 |
| 5-bedroom home, someone in all day | 45% | 10kVA Pro, ₦8.9M | 64% | ₦117 | ₦209.50 |
| Shop or supermarket, 8am–8pm | 70% | 10kVA Max, ₦10.2M | 84% | ₦74 | ₦209.50 |
| Clinic or guest house, round the clock | 50% | 10kVA Max, ₦10.2M | 72% | ₦87 | ₦209.50 |
| Office, 8am–6pm | 89% | 10kVA Max, ₦10.2M | 90% | ₦70 | ₦209.50 |
What goes into that number?
The price, the upkeep, a new battery twice and a new inverter once, over 25 years. Here is the working for the 5-bedroom home that is out all day, on 10kVA Pro:
| Cost | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| System, installed | ₦8.9M | Our package price, October 2026 |
| Maintenance, 25 years | ₦2.2M | 1% of the price a year (₦89,150): cleaning, an annual check, the odd breaker or fuse |
| New battery × 2 | ₦6.2M | Every 10 years, at 70% of today's price, as lithium keeps getting cheaper |
| New inverter × 1 | ₦0.8M | Around year 12, at today's shop price (our estimate) |
| Total cost of ownership | ₦18.2M | |
| Electricity supplied, 25 years | 145,536 kWh | Panels losing 0.5% a year, battery fading 3% a year between replacements |
| Cost per kWh used | ₦125 | Against ₦209.50 for Band A |
Maintenance matters more than it looks. Panels that are never cleaned lose 30–50% of their output to dust within months, so the upkeep allowance pays for itself. The figures are in today’s naira: we assume grid, diesel and maintenance all rise with inflation, and there is no loan or interest, because the system is bought outright.
Why does solar cost more for homes than for businesses?
Because a home that is out all day wastes much of its solar. The panels make most of their power around midday. A family that is out until evening is using little then, the battery fills by early afternoon, and everything after that has nowhere to go: Nigerian homes can’t yet sell spare power back to the grid. The 5-bedroom home uses only 59% of what its panels make. If it used all of it, its solar would cost ₦74 per kWh, not ₦125.
- Run the washing machine, the dishwasher, the pumping machine and the iron in the day.
- Pre-cool the house with the ACs in the afternoon, while the sun is still strong.
- If someone works from home, the system is already better value: the model's home with someone in all day pays ₦117 per kWh against ₦125 for the same-size home that is empty all day.
Buying more panels than you can use makes it worse. The 3-bedroom home on three different systems:
| System | Solar used | Solar per kWh | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6kVA Max (5kWp, 15kWh, ₦5.7M) | 54% | ₦124 | 2.7 years |
| 10kVA Max (9.9kWp, 30kWh, ₦10.2M) | 30% | ₦210 | 4.6 years |
| 20kVA Lite (14.9kWp, 30kWh, ₦13.9M) | 20% | ₦268 | 6.4 years |
What does each customer actually save?
Far more than the gap between solar and Band A, because what solar really replaces is the generator. With the grid off 40% of the time, every customer runs a generator for a large share of the day, at about three times the price of Band A. Counting grid, diesel at ₦1,900 a litre and generator servicing, a Band A customer really pays about ₦405–₦455 per kWh today.
| Customer | Per kWh, today → with solar | Diesel a year | Payback | Saved over 25 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-bedroom home, out all day | ₦417 → ₦123 | 1,021 L → 61 L | 2.7 years | ₦41.8M |
| 5-bedroom home, out all day | ₦409 → ₦119 | 1,665 L → 75 L | 2.6 years | ₦67.0M |
| 5-bedroom home, someone in all day | ₦414 → ₦109 | 1,690 L → 62 L | 2.5 years | ₦70.5M |
| Shop or supermarket, 8am–8pm | ₦442 → ₦89 | 2,767 L → 228 L | 1.8 years | ₦121.9M |
| Clinic or guest house, round the clock | ₦405 → ₦118 | 2,525 L → 217 L | 2 years | ₦105.7M |
| Office, 8am–6pm | ₦455 → ₦78 | 2,840 L → 265 L | 1.7 years | ₦126.7M |
What if Band A actually delivered 20 hours a day?
Solar would still be cheaper per kWh, at ₦72–₦129, but it would save less and take longer to pay back. We moved every customer, with the same load, onto a feeder that keeps the promise (19.8 hours a day). With the generator only covering the last hours of the night there is less diesel to replace, so the right system is smaller.
| Customer | System | Solar per kWh | Per kWh, today → with solar | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-bedroom home, out all day | 6kVA Lite, ₦4.1M | ₦129 | ₦298 → ₦158 | 4 years |
| 5-bedroom home, out all day | 6kVA Pro, ₦5.0M | ₦114 | ₦290 → ₦162 | 3.3 years |
| 5-bedroom home, someone in all day | 6kVA Pro, ₦5.0M | ₦99 | ₦301 → ₦154 | 2.9 years |
| Shop or supermarket, 8am–8pm | 10kVA Max, ₦10.2M | ₦84 | ₦350 → ₦91 | 2.4 years |
| Clinic or guest house, round the clock | 10kVA Lite, ₦6.6M | ₦72 | ₦300 → ₦135 | 2.3 years |
| Office, 8am–6pm | 10kVA Max, ₦10.2M | ₦73 | ₦376 → ₦74 | 2.1 years |
What should a Band A customer buy?
Size the system to your generator hours and your daytime use, not to your roof. If your feeder really does give you close to 20 hours, a small system, or a battery and inverter to carry the gaps, is the best value. If the generator still runs most evenings, size to silence it. Either way, move what you can into daylight. The solar calculator runs the same model on your own bills.
Note: This is one feeder and six typical load patterns, not your building. The model assumes the generator covers every outage hour, at ₦1,900 a litre and 2.8 kWh per litre, and that prices rise with inflation. July to December grid hours are a seasonal forecast, and the inverter replacement is our estimate. How the model works is set out on our methodology page, and the generator figures in our generator cost breakdown.
Sources
- Channels TV: Band A tariff reviews, May–July 2024: ₦206.80 from May 2024, then ₦209.50 from 1 July 2024
- Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission: tariff orders and service bands
